The Big Acq

Well, the Twins have gone and done it. With Highly Obvious Needs in the starting rotation, the Twins went into the off season hunting for a #1 starter, a guy who can dominate and take us to the top. And now they have done it, they have gone out and spent some serious cash on a High Price, High Impact, High Risk Free Agent: Josh Donaldson.

Third baseman.

The Big Acq.

Well.

Donaldson can put the ball in the seats, which is something that the Twins have largely lacked over the last few years, although last year they did happen to set an all-time major league record for home runs.

So the big thing they probably got him for was his fielding. He’s excellent at 3rd, and this will enable Sano to move to first, where he belongs, and where he will replace the departed CJ Cron, who will be playing for the Detroit Twins next season. (Gardenhire, Schoop, Cron.)

Having secured the all-important third base position, the Twins can call this off-season a win. A lot of people were fooled by the Twins saying they were looking for starting pitching. Then, out of no-where: WHAK! Third base! Caught you looking!

Donaldson had a good season last year with the Atlanta club.

(Side note: what would the Atlanta club be called if they ditched their name, (which seems to be offensive to many)? The Atlanta Crackers? That may also be offensive, though there was a minor league Crackers club for quite some time, and they did pretty well. Actually, the Crackers has kind of a nice sound to it, such as in “the Crack of the Bat,” which may be one of the reasons they used it. What else is Atlanta known for? The Atlanta Peaches? The Atlanta Golden Domes? The Atlanta Firemen? The Atlanta Airports? The Georgia Peanuts?)

.259, 37hr, 94rbi, and 4 stolen bases. (The Twins were not busy on the basepaths last season, and Donaldson’s speed will add another dimension to the club.) He should be able to fill Cron’s shoes in the offense department, and he’ll probably be an improvement over Sano at third. Sano, though, moves to first, where he will be a drop from Cron’s fielding acumen. So maybe the fielding all evens out. And is fielding important? Perhaps not as important as planting the ball in the upper deck, but it is pretty fun to watch, and fun to make a nice catch too. Everybody loves a dramatic catch.

Probably, on the scale of What’s Enjoyable About Baseball, an amazing catch beats a home run. Even if it’s an upper deck shot. I’d rather see an amazing catch. A home run is just a long base hit. An amazing catch is super-human.

imho

Anyway. Pencil-in Donaldson at third, Sano at first.

Also pencil-in the Twin Surprises, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill (Homer & Hill) into the tail-end of the starting rotation. There was not a lot of talk about Homer & Hill in the off-season, which made them a perfect target for the Twins Front Office, which enjoys the undervalued and relatively quiet pitching acquisitions.

Which reminds me of Yu Darvish. The highly-coveted-in-the-2017-off-season Yu Darvish, who then was injured most of 2018, and went 6-8 with a 3.98 ERA with the Cubs in 2019. Free agents are a gamble, and free agent pitchers even more so.

Now a third baseman, on the other-hand. A third baseman you can take to the bank. He’s not going to hurt his arm while playing Guitar Hero. Third basemen are rock solid.

I see that Eddie Rosario is still with the club. Good. Let’s not go out and trade him for starting pitching. I know we have a lot of young bats in the minors, Larnach and Raley and the legendary Kiriloff. Are they ready to play in the show? No, not quite. We’ll know when they are ready. They will be pounding at the door. But right now, I don’t hear them knocking. Not yet.

Happy Birthday, Pythagoras!

Yes. It’s true.

First baseman and first baseball sabermetrician Pythagoras was born on this very day, 13 May, 570 BC. It was a Tuesday. Pythagoras’s father was out at a ball game at the time, a double-header, and his mother swore that things would be different with young Pythagoras. No baseball for him. It would be art and poetry and philosophy.

But such was not the case. Baseball apparently ran in the family bloodstream, on the father’s side of the family, at any rate.

Pythagoras grew up loving baseball, and he played first base for the Samos Philosophers, in the Cycladian Association, back in the 550’s. He could hit the ball a long way, and was known at the time for calculating just exactly how far the ball had gone.

After his playing days were over, Pyth practically invented sabermetrics, and his famous “Pythagorean Standings” are still used to this very day in hot-stove leagues and bars all across America.

Pyth passed away in 495 BC, from a severe case of indigestion, at the age of -75.

After Pythagoras passed away Samos built a baseball park in his honor. There was a Pythagoras Park in Samos from roughly 480 – 440 BC.

The site is now just an empty lot, but the pitcher’s mound has been preserved, with a round marble stone on top of it, etched with “Pythagoras Park: Pitcher’s Mound.”

Some say that Pythagoras is buried beneath that stone. But I happen to think that that’s pretty far-fetched.

Good game, Pythagoras!

 

A Morning Cup of Coffee

(4/25/19)

Happy (belated) Birthday Red Bird!

Bird1 - WashTimes9-18-21

James Edward “Red” Bird was born on this date in 1890. He pitched for the Washington Senators back in 1921, at age 31. One game. Saturday, Sept 17, 1921. Relief. Five innings pitched, five hits, 3 runs, a walk, 2 strikeouts. One at bat. One Strike out.

The Washington Times was there to cover the action, and reports that Bird was “well received by the fans,” whatever that means. Perhaps fans then were more discerning, and sometimes booed the new guys coming up from the minors? That seems hard to believe.

The independent minor leagues of the day made baseball ownership a bit more entrepreneurial back then. Or something. Mercantile?  This article, (below,) from the same Times, 13 September, reports that Griffith went out and got some new players at the behest of the fans. (Really?) In any case, for whatever reason, Griffith went out shopping in the minor leagues, and came back with a number of “prospects” for the club. Besides Red Bird, “a southpaw from Shreveport in the Texas League,” there were a couple of pretty good players in that shopping cart: fella name of Goose Goslin, from Columbia in the Sally League, fella name of Ossie Bluege from Peoria in the Three I League.

Bird5 - WashTimes 9-13-21

Also a guy named McIree, a northpaw from Virginia Minnesota (no league.) I wonder if McIree ever made it to the bigs?

All told, Griffith harvests 12 new players from the hinterlands. Nothing like a little new blood to motivate your players and stir a little fan interest at the end of a long season.

Anyway, Bird gets his cup of coffee in the bigs. The reporter is fairly positive about his performance, but perhaps for 31-year-old rookies trying to make it big, you cut them some slack.

He calls Bird “a well put-up southpaw from the Texas League…” I wonder what he meant by that. Was Bird highly touted? A prize catch? A sturdy lad?

Bird comes in in the 5th and does as well as anyone could ask, the reporter says, except for the 7th inning. I guess one bad inning out of five isn’t so bad. Bird gives up a single in the fifth, and hits a batter, but nobody scores. Sixth inning, nobody scores. Then in the 7th, with one out, a walk, a single, and Sewell nails a well-hit triple to left-center. Rice was apparently playing over in right center with Sewell at bat, and couldn’t flag it down. But the hit was a hummer, maybe Rice couldn’t have got it in any case, so what can you do? A sacrifice fly brings Sewell home, and three runs are on the board against Mr. Bird.

“Bird disposed of the foe in good style in the remaining two innings.”

So. Not so bad. One rocky inning. One good hit, really. If Sewell flies out to Rice, maybe nobody scores. Maybe Bird plays a few more games, settles down, has himself a major league career, instead of a cup of coffee. But that’s the way baseball go. I wonder what became of Red Bird after his cup of coffee. Did he stick with the club for the rest of the season? Was he let go the next day?

Baseball Reference.com tells us that Bird went 17-12 with Shreveport in 1921, with a 3.76 ERA. In 1922 he was back with Shreveport, but had less fun, going 9-13, with a 4.59 ERA. In 1923 he started the year with the Shreveport club, then went to Memphis in the Southern League, where he went 11-11, and then on to Mobile. In 1924 he started at Galveston, back in the Texas League, then went back to the Southern League, to Mobile and Nashville. In 1925, Texas league, Waco and then Houston. His record was 19-11 in ’25, but more detail than that is lacking. In ’26 and ’27 the peripatetic Red Bird landed in Fort Worth, and he finished out his career there in the Texas League. Red Bird

I looked around a bit in old newspapers for a picture of Red, but found nothing. Baseball Reference has an old picture, looks like from a newspaper, not very good quality, but the best available.

Red passed away 23 March 1972 in Murfreesboro, Arkansas, at age 81, and he’s buried in Stephenville, Texas, where he was born. Back in the Texas League again.

Good game, Red.

Bird3 - WashTimes9-18-21 (1)

 

Three Days till Summer!

Opening Day beckons.

(Longest Post Ever?) (I’m finally hitting my stride!)

And with Opening Day comes Opening Day forecasts, predictions, prognostications, divinations, hariolations, augury, presagements, vaticinations, estimations, calculations, mantologies, prophesizing, soothsaying, conjecturing, and plain old wild guesstimating.

I thought I’d look back at my opening day predictions, those made while I’ve been blogging, and see how I’m doing. And, just for fun, (and because I’m competitive,) I thought I’d compare my record to that of the mavens who are following baseball for a living for the local news rag.. And so I looked up the predictions listed in the StarTribune Baseball Preview section for the past four seasons, and charted them with mine:

First of all, only four seasons of predictions? When I’ve been “running” this blog for, what, six or seven years? I don’t have any explanation for that. But them’s the facts.

Adding up the differences, I’m at +44 over 4 seasons, which makes my average +11 per season, which in some ways seems pretty on-target: I am wildly optimistic. But perhaps not totally unhinged from reality.

I think statistically it might make sense to throw out the high and the low, and work with the ones in between. (Though with such a small data set, that’s probably not a good idea.) But, taking that route, we forget about 2016, the season in hell, and 2017, when I over compensated for 2016. Which leaves us at +13 over two seasons, or 6.5 games over per season. Now that sounds more like it. While I am still too optimistic, I do have a somewhat firmer grip on reality. (Though maybe I should have thrown out the season when I nailed it, on the nose? Well, let’s not over-think this.)

The predictions of the professionals are interesting. Is Pat Reusse the best at this because his predicted results total only 1.75 games off reality over four years? Or is he the worst at this, as he’s off by double digits every year, in one direction or the other. You make the call.

Who were the winners over the four years? Well, it’s between me and Phil, I would say. He was closest to the mark two years, and I was closest to the mark two years. Now, when he was closest to the mark, he was off by an average of 12.5 games, and when I was closest to the mark, I was off by -1.5 games. But does that make me a better guesser than Phil? Does that make him a bad person, and me a baseball genius?

Again: you make the call.

I have to say that Phil suffers by being closest during the 2016 season in hell, when everyone was wildly wildly insanely optimistic. And the Twins rolled over and died like dogs.  [shudder…]

But. Well…

Anyway. So it goes. Basically, when it comes to baseball, nobody knows anything. I have a feeling that someone said that before me, some baseball guy. Yogi? If I’m the first, though, you may quote me.

And so, anyway, hows about 2019?

Well, let’s take a look at the Twins lineup.

Catcher: Pitch-framing Castro, and the youngster, Garver. And the Amazing Astudillo
Castro was injured most of last season. If he’s healthy, he’s starting, and you have to think this is a plus from last season. Right?
Garver gained experience last year, but also suffered a concussion. Showed a pretty good bat last season, but can he come back from the injury? The Twins have a bad history with concussions. They don’t like us. Astudillo. Well, we all love Astudillo. And he is amazing. What else can you say?
I call this, One Step Forward.

First Base: C.J. Cron is the starter. Acquired as a free agent from Tampa Bay, and played for the Angels for a few years before that. Initials stand for Christopher John. C. J. has a nice ring to it, and is better than Chris Cron or John Cron, both of which sound kind of funny. What were his parents thinking? Perhaps they always wanted a kid they could call C. J.
C. J.’s season-by-season major league HR totals over his career go like this: 11, 16, 16, 16, 30. His OPS went up from .741 to .816 last season. His batting average has been pretty consistent, but his slugging percentage went up from .437 to .493 last season. What’s the deal? Does Tampa Bay have a hitters park, compared to LA? No. More home runs in LA. Minnesota’s park is less than LA, more than Tampa Bay. So we’ll be optimistic. This is an upgrade from Mauer at first, who had a .729 OPS last season.
Backing up Cron we have the Mysterious Sano, and Tyler Austin, who people (around here) talk about a lot, I’m not sure why yet. He showed some power last year, 9 home runs in 123 at bats, hitting a shade over .230. The jury is out on Mr. Austin. People seem to think that he can unload.
One and a half steps forward.

Second Base: Jonathon Schoop, another free agent acquisition who’s been receiving a lot of positive attention in these parts. Last year with the Orioles and the Brewers, he hit .233 with 21 HR in 473 at bats. In 2017, though, it was .293, 32 HR, and 105 rbis. So what happened last year? Well, there was an injury. If we see the 2017 Schoop, we got a great deal here. Last year the Twins had Bull Dozier at second, and he had an off year. I’m a Dozier fan, and so I’m calling this a slight step forward. But Dozier had a terrible year last year, so this has got to be an upgrade. And Mr. Schoop has a lot of upside, there’s a lot of potential for this to be a big upgrade.
Backing up the Schoop is Marvelous Marwin Gonzalez, carrying some Divisional Championship Magic Dust from the Houston Astros. (I can’t believe I just wrote those words.) Gonzalez has a lot of street cred. He hit .247 last year with Houston, with 16 HR, and 489 at bats. Most of his games were in left field, but he also played shortstop, second base, third base, and first base. So a nice acquisition. He’s got a lifetime .264 average with Houston, and hit .303 with 23 HR in 2017. He’s going to want at-bats, I think, to be a happy ball player. I guess we should expect to see him play all over the field.
Let’s take one step forward.

Shortstop: Jorge Polanco, who also started last year, and for the Twins even, after he served his time off for PED. Polanco has had troubles in the fielding department, but it’s hard to tell how that will go. This season will tell us a lot about Mr. Polanco. He swings a pretty good bat, hit .288 in 302 at bats, a .773 OPS. and he’s hit about .300 this spring. I’d have to say we’re better off with a whole season of Polanco. Does fielding matter? Well, we’ll see.
Backing up Mr. Polanco is Ehire Adrianza. I like Ehire. He hit .251 last season, with a .680 OPS. I don’t have anything solid really, to base my Adrianza appreciation on, but it seemed like last year he was always surprising us. In a positive way. He needs a nickname, though. El Cabong? Needs more thought.

Who was El Cabong, and how did he pop to mind?
Funny.
After internet research, I find that I spelled it wrong, so that’s why we didn’t recognize it. El Kabong was the alter ego of Quick Draw McGraw. “Of all the heroes in legend and song, there’s none as brave as El Kabong.” He would hit the villains with his acoustic guitar. Ka-Bong!
But, I digress.

There’s some talk in recent days that Adrianza might be traded, what with Marvelous and Amazing and him being out of options. But I hope not. But that’s the way baseball go. I’m holding onto the El Kabong nickname for now.
Waiting in the wings, top prospect Royce Lewis, who’s a-coming. Maybe he’ll be El Kabong.
One step forward.

Third Base: Dare we pencil in the Mysterious Miguel Sano’s name here? All-star team in 2017, MIA in 2018. What can we look for in 2019? Last year was pretty dismal, especially given expectations: .199 – 13 – 41. OPS of .679? Yup. In 299 at bats. Sent down to Class A! Fort Myers! Where he hit .328 in 77 at bats. Yes, last season was Miguel Sano’s own personal season in hell. Bad health. Bad habits. There was a sexual harassment thing at the beginning of the season that left a cloud, I’ll bet. All in all: ugh. Kabong!

This season they say that he reported to camp “in the best shape of his career.” Our New Manager went down to visit him in the off-season. They talked about life, perhaps. Its twists and turns. They say Sano appreciated the gesture. They say maybe he’s turned the corner, ready to be the player he could be. They say a lot of things.
But: surprise! He’s hurt. Got a “laceration” in winter ball that hasn’t healed correctly. Needed further treatment this spring, and now he’s out for a month or so.
The jury is out. You have to think that with a healthy and revitalized Sano at third, the Twins will be much much better than last year. Right? That just makes sense. Don’t it?
Marvelous Marwin backs up Sano, along with the Amazing Astudillo.
Surely a healthy and productive Sano would be worth four or five steps forward? He could be a truly exceptional player. But let’s say three, just to be on the safe side. Three steps forward.

Left Field: Steady Eddie Rosario. I think most teams would be happy to have Steady Eddie in left. Hit .288 with an .803 OPS. 24 HR. Excellent fielder. Aggressive. Young. Fast. Shows up for Game, every day. Possibly a marginal advantage in the coming season, with maturity, though he had such a great season last year that we’ll call it even.
Jake Cave backing him up, along with Marvelous Marwin. Cave impressed everyone last year, hitting .269 – 13 – 45 in 283 at bats as a rookie. There’s a Law firm of youngsters waiting in the wings, name of Wade, Rooker & Baddoo. We’ll be seeing these guys in the very near future.
Even.

Center Field: Byron Buxton? He only made 64 games last year due to injuries, and when he played, he hit… .156? Yes, that’s right. .156. With a .383 OPS. Another season in hell. Byron K. Buxton. Difficult to fathom.
Well, I’m going to have a little faith in Mr. Buxton. I don’t know what all went on last year. Let’s chalk it up to injuries. It’s a new day, in a new year, and Mr. Buxton will be healthy, get 550 or so at bats, and we’ll all live happily ever after.
Max Kepler backs up the Buxt in CF.
Again, you would think the addition of a healthy productive Buxton would be worth four or five steps forward. But again, we’ll call it
three steps forward. (See? I am Mr. Conservative.)

Right Field: Max Kepler. Excellent defensively. Plus: 20 HR, 58 rbis. Only hit .224, but I believe he’s a better hitter than that. Twins daily tells us he only had a .232 BABIP last season, so you know that’s going to improve. We’re really very happy with Mr. Kepler in right, and would not be at all surprised if he gave us a bit of improvement over last year’s numbers.
Jake Cave backs up Max in right. And waiting in the wings is a perfectly good prospect, name of Alex Kirilloff, just waiting for an opportunity to succeed.
One step forward.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz. 38-year-old Cruz hit 37 HR last season, with .850 OPS. Even if he rapidly ages during 2019, when, statistically, he’ll become 39-year-old Nelson Cruz, he should be better than the cast of characters we had as DH last season. The departed Robbie Grossman hit .273 last season, with .751 OPS. We should do better than that.
Two Steps forward.

Relief Pitching:
Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryne Harper, Fernando Romero, Addison Reed, Adalberto Mejia, Blake Parker. And others. The pen is, as they say, “a little unsettled.” For instance, Ryne Harper, who’s not even on the roster. He’s got 13 strikeouts and no walks in 10 innings this spring, with a 0.00 ERA. And then there’s Preston Guilmet, also not on the roster, who’s got 15 strikeouts this spring in 9+ innings. And Matt McGill, who went 3-3 last season, with 3.81 ERA in 56 innings. So, we’ll see, we’ll see who heads north.
Much will depend upon how the new manager handles this assembly. Last year I thought our bullpen was okay. Statistics seem to indicate otherwise. But statistics are tricky things, as we’ve seen. And who are you going to believe? Me? Or a bunch of sneaky made-up numbers?
And, anyway, it’s a new year, and basically anything can happen here. Some might say our bullpen is like a ticking time bomb, but I’m thinking it’s more like an IED, that may or may not go off. How’s that for positive? And so what if we don’t have a closer? Who needs ’em?
But, let’s take 4 steps back.

Starting Pitching:
Jose Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Jake Oderizzi
Miguel Pinada
Martin Perez?

To start the season, at any rate. Jose Berrios is for real. Kyle Gibson might be for real. Oderizzi, Pineda, and Perez are Very Large Question marks. Just when I was on the verge of being overconfident, I look at starting pitching and I see nothing but danger. There’s a few youngsters that we may be seeing during the course of the season. But our starting pitching is an accident waiting to happen. I hope I’m wrong. I’m sure these guys are good. They’re professionals. Right? Spring has shown glimmers of promise. Right? But still… [shudder.]

Looking on the bright side: our starting pitching was pretty miserable last season too. So how much worse can it get?

Take three steps back.

Manager: Holy Cow, to quote Halsey Hall, the Twins have a new manager! And he’s got a great baseball name, Rocco Baldelli. Rocco Baldelli. Rocco Baldelli. I like it. With the new manager, a new pitching coach: Wes Johnson, who was coaching at the University of Arkansas last year. (They reached the CWS (College World Series) .)

Okay, Paul (Manager of the Year, 2017) Molitor, vs. Rocco Baldelli. Oddly, not a quick call on that. You’d Think that Molitor would have the advantage, and you’d think a rookie big-league manager might be a step down from last year. Maybe. This could go either way. Molitor had a lot to contend with last season, with lots of injuries on the club. Key Players were MIA. Given all that, 78-84 is probably a pretty good record. And on that basis, I’m going to say this is a small step back for the club. After all: he’s only the manager.
One step back. Because he’s new.

 

So. Put it all together, and what do you get?

Catchers: +1
First base: +1.5
Second base: +1
Shortstop: +1
Third base: +3
Left field: even
Center field: +3
Right field: +1
DH: +2
Relief Pitching: -4
Starting Pitching: -3
Manager: -1

total: +5.5 (if my math is right.)

Now let’s factor in my penchant for overly optimistic forecasts: -6.5

and we get a -1. A bit worse than last season.
And so the forecast for the coming season should be about 77-85.

But that can’t be right.

Obviously, I was way too conservative on improvements that are coming in the infield and at DH. And really, there’s not enough data yet to use that -6.5 with any degree of confidence. So let’s throw that out. Data be damned.

It looks to me like the Twins pitching is going to keep them out of contention. Berrios and Gibson and …pray for rain?
But the offense should be quite a bit better, too.

And so: Official 2019 Final Prediction: 86-76

Addendum: the baseball gods smile down on me today: I find THREE baseball forecasting magazines in a little free library just down the street!

More on this development later.

And, by the way, who is the Greek/Roman/Norse god of baseball, anyway?

CHS Field-trip!

Well, I always like to let the hoopla die down a little bit before I jump in.

So, even though the St. Paul Saints opened their new downtown ball park last summer, I thought best to wait till late this summer (31 August – the last home game of the season) to see them play in their still relatively brand new park.

It’s a great place to see a game! The seats are comfortable, and there’s a concourse so that you can walk all around the ballpark and get some exercise and see the game at all angles. Plus there’s a nice view of St. Paul from out in left field. I wonder what their thinking was, in having the park face away from downtown, rather than towards it, so that you’d see the skyline of St. Paul over the outfield. Just curious.

The game was not so bad. The home town boys took it on the chin, dropping the game to the Winnipeg Goldeyes, (apparently some sort of fish,) 5-0, but it was an okay game. Perhaps because it was a perfect night for a ballgame.

The Saints play in the American Association of Independent Professional Baseball. They’ve played just about .500 ball this year, and it doesn’t look like they’ll make the playoffs. Unfortunate, as I had such a nice time I’d like to get back there soon.

Wait till next year, I guess.