Phils Clobber Twins!

Well, yesterday, when I started writing this up, the Twins were on a pace to win, like, 130 games this year. But then they lost yesterday, and we knew 130 games was crazy unrealistic anyway, so now we are back on to reality, and on pace to win 107.99 games, which is still pretty good, we’ll take that, thank you very much.

But, of course, It’s Early. And early trends do not reliably predict future performance. So we’ll play them one game at a time, see if we can get to 5 – 2 today. (And back on pace to win 115.714285714 games.)

I was just about to write about what a good start the Twins were off to, and I wondered when was the last time the boys got off to such a good start? Well, as you undoubtedly recall, the 2017 Twins — yes, all the way back to 2017. Remember those guys? Mauer and Dozier and Grossman and los dos Santanas and Colon and Kintzler? Remember those guys? — anyway, they started off the season 5-1, which is where we would have been if we would have won yesterday. 2002? Also a 5-1 start. In ’68 and ’65 the boys jumped off to a 6-1 start. I guess we’re not going to match any of those records, but 4-2 is better than 2-4, so we’re sufficiently happy.

Yesterday they lose to the Phillies, 10-4. Looking at the box score, what jumps out first is 3 errors. Well, those things happen. It was a very bad weather day in Philly, drizzly/rainy and cold, and both teams had to contend with that, but it seems like the weather or something else got in Odorizzi’s way: he only went 2/3rds of an inning, gave up 2 hits, 3 walks, 5 runs. Not a quality start. The boys narrowed it to 6-4 in the top of the 5th, but that was all she wrote. Perez gave up a couple more runs, and Mejia yielded a few, and game over.

The other thing that jumps out from the box score is the Polanco line: 5 1 5 1. Jorge goes 5 for 5, which is an awfully nice day at the plate. AND he hits for the cycle, which is the first time that’s happened for the Twins since Cuddyer did it in 2009. Hitting for the cycle is an odd thing. Nobody tries to hit the cycle. Nobody stops at second if that’s what they need to complete the cycle. It’s a somewhat meaningless event. But still: cool. But I think the cycle is overshadowed by a 5 for 5 day. To sum up: kudos to Polanco for 5 for 5 and the cycle. “Keep up the good work.”

This seems like a math-heavy post, so we’ll just touch briefly on the Pythagorean Theory of Baseball. You all know Pythagoras, of course, who was a geometry guy, I think, his real life job was as a geometrist. You could make good money at that, back in the day. But his true love was baseball, or rather, the early Greek form of baseball, which was called something else back then, but was basically a form of baseball, an early Greek-style form of baseball, so we’ll just call it baseball. When he was young he played a little ball with the Samos club, you could look it up, and after that he took up geometry in a big way, and kind of became known for that more than for his early days with Philosophers. (Good glove, no hit. Tended to overthink things out there at the plate.)

Pyth was obviously good with numbers, (or what they used for numbers, back then. This was before actual “numbers.”) and he paid attention to numbers, and he was, like the first early Greek-form-of-baseball sabermetrist. And he noticed or worked out that he could get a pretty good estimate of a team’s winning percentage by comparing the number of runs they scored to the number of runs they allowed. That simple. Like I said, it was an early form of sabermetrisity. They didn’t have a lot of data to work with but they did have runs and wins and losses. (They were not called runs back then. They were called ducats. I don’t know why. Basically the same thing, though.)

We move ahead, then, years later, many many years later to the famous American psychologist, writer and philosopher William James. James “rediscovered” this Pythagorean formula, back in the 1880s, I believe, while following the fortunes of the Beaneaters in Boston. I think he wrote a paper about it, using a slightly updated version, removing the ducats.

Ever since then, countless others have tinkered with the basic formula, trying to improve its accuracy and get their name on a formula.

The”general use” version of the Pythagorean formula currently is:

I’m sure there are other versions that factor in lefty righty splits during rain delays in day games during July before a road trip to the east coast. And probably more complicated versions than that.

But, using this very simple, very basic, very very old formula, you are generally able to make a pretty darn good estimate as to a teams winning percentage. The trick, of course, is to know how many runs they will score in the season, and how many runs they will give up. At this point Pythagoras threw up his hands and said, “that’s why we play the games!” And he was so right about that.

You’ll find a team’s Pythagorean Results listed in some of the more detailed standings sheets that you might see in the sports pages, and maybe even online, telling you, based on how many runs they’ve scored and given up, what their record should be. Teams will often be a few games above or below their Pythagorean record. Seems like the Twins are usually a few games below. Chalk it up to weather conditions or luck or bad base running or whatever. Maybe the boys ease up when they have a big lead, so as not to rub it in. That would affect their Pythagorean standings. But Pythagorean standings don’t win pennants.

That’s why we play the games.

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Radke Radke Tewksbury Radke Radke Radke Radke Radke Radke and Radke

Brad Radke started in 9 opening games for the twins from 1996-2005. After Radke started in 96 and 97, Bob Tewksbury started in 98, and then Radke reeled off seven in a row. Tewk pitched in 97 and 98 for the Twins. I think I’d forgotten all about that. 98 was Tewk’s final season in the majors, he went 7-13, 4.79 that year. I wonder if Radke was hurt at the start of that season?
That stretch, from 96 to 2005, ran the gamut from terrible (90+ loss seasons in 97, 98, 99, and 2000 — as the Twins retooled from their glorious championship season of 1991) to pretty darn good, with 90+ win seasons and division championships in 02, 03, and 04.

Through it all, Radke never flapped. Not once. He was totally and completely unflappable. Probably something he was born with. On his second grade report card the teachers probably started writing “unflappable,” and he’s probably still unflappable today. (He may flap a lot in private life, but that’s his own business.)

Radke was a classic Twin. We’ll call him a hometown boy, even though he was born over there in Wiscky. Eau Claire (french for “bad eclaire”). Lifetime record of 148-139, with a 4.22 era. Played in 378 games, and started 377 of them. I wonder what happened with that other game? It was his first season. I wonder if it was his first game? That wouldn’t be surprising I guess. Manager tosses the new kid into his first game in relief, and then Radke goes and starts the next 377.

His top season was 1997, when he went 20-10 with a 3.87 era. Other than that, I guess he had pretty much a .500 record, since his career record is 9 games over .500. The Twins went 68-94 in 1997, so Radke had some season that year. I wonder if Radke got hurt late in 97, or over-used? As Tewks started opening day in 98, and Radke went 12-14 with a 4.30 era that year, and finished his career with that 4.22 era. Probably that 97 season colored my perspective of Radke for all those subsequent years. I think I’ll look into this a bit. What’s the story?

[UPDATE: Turns out they (management) thought it would be a bigger honor if Radke started the home opener in ’98. So he wasn’t hurt. They just saved him for the next day. A bit odd. Radke didn’t seem to care one way or the other. In 2001, 2002, and 2003 they opened on the road, and Radke started anyways. (I wonder who got the honor of starting in the home opener those years? (Answer: Radke, Radke and Rick Reed.)) So. There you go. AND the Twins beat the Spiders 9-3 today. Got a few hits. Buxton, Cruz, Astudillo. Lookin’ good, guys.
This concludes the next-day update. We now resume normal programming.]

And so, even though he was not the 97 edition of Radke, he still started 7 openers in a row after that. Who else was pitching in those seasons, I wonder?
2002: Eric Milton, Rick Reed, Kyle Loshe, Johan Santana(!), and Joe Mays
2003: Kenny Rodgers, Joe Mays, Kyle Loshe, Rick Reed, and Johan Santana
2004: Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Kyle Loshe, Terry Mullholland…and Seth Greisinger?

Those were some pretty good years, though the pitching staffs seem kind of cobbled together. I always had high hopes for Joe Mays, but: arm trouble. Maybe he should have learned to throw the knuckler.

Radke was a free agent in 2004, but signed with the Twins anyway. Another sign of a Minnesota ballplayer. Sure you could maybe get more money in California or New York. But then you’d probably have to live there too. We’re sure those are fine places, but we’re good where we are. Thanks anyway.

Good game Brad. I enjoyed your work on the Hill.

First Place!

Well, yes, it’s good to be in first place.

Long-time Twins fans know that it is a rare occurrence for the boys to come out of the gate at 1-0. We know that a jump-start like that is something to be embraced and celebrated. 1-0! Undefeated! First Place!

First Place, thanks to Jose Berrios 7.2 innings of 2-hit 10-k ball, and Marvelous Marwin Gonzalez 2-rbi double in the bottom of the 7th. The Cleveland club’s pitcher, Kluber, was nearly as good, four hits over seven innings. But no, he could not match Berrios on this opening day, and the Twins emerged triumphant from a game played in mid-season form.

The Twins now stand 26-34 on opening day. 2-9 in the last 11 years. Those have not been good years. They’re 11-12 in home openers. It’s always a struggle. We are a northern team, and so, after spring training down there in Florida, it takes us a few games to get acclimated to the Great North Woods again.

After a day off to rest on laurels, we take on the Spiders again, Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Day games! Let’s play two!

Quick Twins Trivia question: Which Twins pitcher started the most season openers?

Three Days till Summer!

Opening Day beckons.

(Longest Post Ever?) (I’m finally hitting my stride!)

And with Opening Day comes Opening Day forecasts, predictions, prognostications, divinations, hariolations, augury, presagements, vaticinations, estimations, calculations, mantologies, prophesizing, soothsaying, conjecturing, and plain old wild guesstimating.

I thought I’d look back at my opening day predictions, those made while I’ve been blogging, and see how I’m doing. And, just for fun, (and because I’m competitive,) I thought I’d compare my record to that of the mavens who are following baseball for a living for the local news rag.. And so I looked up the predictions listed in the StarTribune Baseball Preview section for the past four seasons, and charted them with mine:

First of all, only four seasons of predictions? When I’ve been “running” this blog for, what, six or seven years? I don’t have any explanation for that. But them’s the facts.

Adding up the differences, I’m at +44 over 4 seasons, which makes my average +11 per season, which in some ways seems pretty on-target: I am wildly optimistic. But perhaps not totally unhinged from reality.

I think statistically it might make sense to throw out the high and the low, and work with the ones in between. (Though with such a small data set, that’s probably not a good idea.) But, taking that route, we forget about 2016, the season in hell, and 2017, when I over compensated for 2016. Which leaves us at +13 over two seasons, or 6.5 games over per season. Now that sounds more like it. While I am still too optimistic, I do have a somewhat firmer grip on reality. (Though maybe I should have thrown out the season when I nailed it, on the nose? Well, let’s not over-think this.)

The predictions of the professionals are interesting. Is Pat Reusse the best at this because his predicted results total only 1.75 games off reality over four years? Or is he the worst at this, as he’s off by double digits every year, in one direction or the other. You make the call.

Who were the winners over the four years? Well, it’s between me and Phil, I would say. He was closest to the mark two years, and I was closest to the mark two years. Now, when he was closest to the mark, he was off by an average of 12.5 games, and when I was closest to the mark, I was off by -1.5 games. But does that make me a better guesser than Phil? Does that make him a bad person, and me a baseball genius?

Again: you make the call.

I have to say that Phil suffers by being closest during the 2016 season in hell, when everyone was wildly wildly insanely optimistic. And the Twins rolled over and died like dogs.  [shudder…]

But. Well…

Anyway. So it goes. Basically, when it comes to baseball, nobody knows anything. I have a feeling that someone said that before me, some baseball guy. Yogi? If I’m the first, though, you may quote me.

And so, anyway, hows about 2019?

Well, let’s take a look at the Twins lineup.

Catcher: Pitch-framing Castro, and the youngster, Garver. And the Amazing Astudillo
Castro was injured most of last season. If he’s healthy, he’s starting, and you have to think this is a plus from last season. Right?
Garver gained experience last year, but also suffered a concussion. Showed a pretty good bat last season, but can he come back from the injury? The Twins have a bad history with concussions. They don’t like us. Astudillo. Well, we all love Astudillo. And he is amazing. What else can you say?
I call this, One Step Forward.

First Base: C.J. Cron is the starter. Acquired as a free agent from Tampa Bay, and played for the Angels for a few years before that. Initials stand for Christopher John. C. J. has a nice ring to it, and is better than Chris Cron or John Cron, both of which sound kind of funny. What were his parents thinking? Perhaps they always wanted a kid they could call C. J.
C. J.’s season-by-season major league HR totals over his career go like this: 11, 16, 16, 16, 30. His OPS went up from .741 to .816 last season. His batting average has been pretty consistent, but his slugging percentage went up from .437 to .493 last season. What’s the deal? Does Tampa Bay have a hitters park, compared to LA? No. More home runs in LA. Minnesota’s park is less than LA, more than Tampa Bay. So we’ll be optimistic. This is an upgrade from Mauer at first, who had a .729 OPS last season.
Backing up Cron we have the Mysterious Sano, and Tyler Austin, who people (around here) talk about a lot, I’m not sure why yet. He showed some power last year, 9 home runs in 123 at bats, hitting a shade over .230. The jury is out on Mr. Austin. People seem to think that he can unload.
One and a half steps forward.

Second Base: Jonathon Schoop, another free agent acquisition who’s been receiving a lot of positive attention in these parts. Last year with the Orioles and the Brewers, he hit .233 with 21 HR in 473 at bats. In 2017, though, it was .293, 32 HR, and 105 rbis. So what happened last year? Well, there was an injury. If we see the 2017 Schoop, we got a great deal here. Last year the Twins had Bull Dozier at second, and he had an off year. I’m a Dozier fan, and so I’m calling this a slight step forward. But Dozier had a terrible year last year, so this has got to be an upgrade. And Mr. Schoop has a lot of upside, there’s a lot of potential for this to be a big upgrade.
Backing up the Schoop is Marvelous Marwin Gonzalez, carrying some Divisional Championship Magic Dust from the Houston Astros. (I can’t believe I just wrote those words.) Gonzalez has a lot of street cred. He hit .247 last year with Houston, with 16 HR, and 489 at bats. Most of his games were in left field, but he also played shortstop, second base, third base, and first base. So a nice acquisition. He’s got a lifetime .264 average with Houston, and hit .303 with 23 HR in 2017. He’s going to want at-bats, I think, to be a happy ball player. I guess we should expect to see him play all over the field.
Let’s take one step forward.

Shortstop: Jorge Polanco, who also started last year, and for the Twins even, after he served his time off for PED. Polanco has had troubles in the fielding department, but it’s hard to tell how that will go. This season will tell us a lot about Mr. Polanco. He swings a pretty good bat, hit .288 in 302 at bats, a .773 OPS. and he’s hit about .300 this spring. I’d have to say we’re better off with a whole season of Polanco. Does fielding matter? Well, we’ll see.
Backing up Mr. Polanco is Ehire Adrianza. I like Ehire. He hit .251 last season, with a .680 OPS. I don’t have anything solid really, to base my Adrianza appreciation on, but it seemed like last year he was always surprising us. In a positive way. He needs a nickname, though. El Cabong? Needs more thought.

Who was El Cabong, and how did he pop to mind?
Funny.
After internet research, I find that I spelled it wrong, so that’s why we didn’t recognize it. El Kabong was the alter ego of Quick Draw McGraw. “Of all the heroes in legend and song, there’s none as brave as El Kabong.” He would hit the villains with his acoustic guitar. Ka-Bong!
But, I digress.

There’s some talk in recent days that Adrianza might be traded, what with Marvelous and Amazing and him being out of options. But I hope not. But that’s the way baseball go. I’m holding onto the El Kabong nickname for now.
Waiting in the wings, top prospect Royce Lewis, who’s a-coming. Maybe he’ll be El Kabong.
One step forward.

Third Base: Dare we pencil in the Mysterious Miguel Sano’s name here? All-star team in 2017, MIA in 2018. What can we look for in 2019? Last year was pretty dismal, especially given expectations: .199 – 13 – 41. OPS of .679? Yup. In 299 at bats. Sent down to Class A! Fort Myers! Where he hit .328 in 77 at bats. Yes, last season was Miguel Sano’s own personal season in hell. Bad health. Bad habits. There was a sexual harassment thing at the beginning of the season that left a cloud, I’ll bet. All in all: ugh. Kabong!

This season they say that he reported to camp “in the best shape of his career.” Our New Manager went down to visit him in the off-season. They talked about life, perhaps. Its twists and turns. They say Sano appreciated the gesture. They say maybe he’s turned the corner, ready to be the player he could be. They say a lot of things.
But: surprise! He’s hurt. Got a “laceration” in winter ball that hasn’t healed correctly. Needed further treatment this spring, and now he’s out for a month or so.
The jury is out. You have to think that with a healthy and revitalized Sano at third, the Twins will be much much better than last year. Right? That just makes sense. Don’t it?
Marvelous Marwin backs up Sano, along with the Amazing Astudillo.
Surely a healthy and productive Sano would be worth four or five steps forward? He could be a truly exceptional player. But let’s say three, just to be on the safe side. Three steps forward.

Left Field: Steady Eddie Rosario. I think most teams would be happy to have Steady Eddie in left. Hit .288 with an .803 OPS. 24 HR. Excellent fielder. Aggressive. Young. Fast. Shows up for Game, every day. Possibly a marginal advantage in the coming season, with maturity, though he had such a great season last year that we’ll call it even.
Jake Cave backing him up, along with Marvelous Marwin. Cave impressed everyone last year, hitting .269 – 13 – 45 in 283 at bats as a rookie. There’s a Law firm of youngsters waiting in the wings, name of Wade, Rooker & Baddoo. We’ll be seeing these guys in the very near future.
Even.

Center Field: Byron Buxton? He only made 64 games last year due to injuries, and when he played, he hit… .156? Yes, that’s right. .156. With a .383 OPS. Another season in hell. Byron K. Buxton. Difficult to fathom.
Well, I’m going to have a little faith in Mr. Buxton. I don’t know what all went on last year. Let’s chalk it up to injuries. It’s a new day, in a new year, and Mr. Buxton will be healthy, get 550 or so at bats, and we’ll all live happily ever after.
Max Kepler backs up the Buxt in CF.
Again, you would think the addition of a healthy productive Buxton would be worth four or five steps forward. But again, we’ll call it
three steps forward. (See? I am Mr. Conservative.)

Right Field: Max Kepler. Excellent defensively. Plus: 20 HR, 58 rbis. Only hit .224, but I believe he’s a better hitter than that. Twins daily tells us he only had a .232 BABIP last season, so you know that’s going to improve. We’re really very happy with Mr. Kepler in right, and would not be at all surprised if he gave us a bit of improvement over last year’s numbers.
Jake Cave backs up Max in right. And waiting in the wings is a perfectly good prospect, name of Alex Kirilloff, just waiting for an opportunity to succeed.
One step forward.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz. 38-year-old Cruz hit 37 HR last season, with .850 OPS. Even if he rapidly ages during 2019, when, statistically, he’ll become 39-year-old Nelson Cruz, he should be better than the cast of characters we had as DH last season. The departed Robbie Grossman hit .273 last season, with .751 OPS. We should do better than that.
Two Steps forward.

Relief Pitching:
Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryne Harper, Fernando Romero, Addison Reed, Adalberto Mejia, Blake Parker. And others. The pen is, as they say, “a little unsettled.” For instance, Ryne Harper, who’s not even on the roster. He’s got 13 strikeouts and no walks in 10 innings this spring, with a 0.00 ERA. And then there’s Preston Guilmet, also not on the roster, who’s got 15 strikeouts this spring in 9+ innings. And Matt McGill, who went 3-3 last season, with 3.81 ERA in 56 innings. So, we’ll see, we’ll see who heads north.
Much will depend upon how the new manager handles this assembly. Last year I thought our bullpen was okay. Statistics seem to indicate otherwise. But statistics are tricky things, as we’ve seen. And who are you going to believe? Me? Or a bunch of sneaky made-up numbers?
And, anyway, it’s a new year, and basically anything can happen here. Some might say our bullpen is like a ticking time bomb, but I’m thinking it’s more like an IUD, that may or may not go off. How’s that for positive? And so what if we don’t have a closer? Who needs ’em?
But, let’s take 4 steps back.

Starting Pitching:
Jose Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Jake Oderizzi
Miguel Pinada
Martin Perez?

To start the season, at any rate. Jose Berrios is for real. Kyle Gibson might be for real. Oderizzi, Pineda, and Perez are Very Large Question marks. Just when I was on the verge of being overconfident, I look at starting pitching and I see nothing but danger. There’s a few youngsters that we may be seeing during the course of the season. But our starting pitching is an accident waiting to happen. I hope I’m wrong. I’m sure these guys are good. They’re professionals. Right? Spring has shown glimmers of promise. Right? But still… [shudder.]

Looking on the bright side: our starting pitching was pretty miserable last season too. So how much worse can it get?

Take three steps back.

Manager: Holy Cow, to quote Halsey Hall, the Twins have a new manager! And he’s got a great baseball name, Rocco Baldelli. Rocco Baldelli. Rocco Baldelli. I like it. With the new manager, a new pitching coach: Wes Johnson, who was coaching at the University of Arkansas last year. (They reached the CWS (College World Series) .)

Okay, Paul (Manager of the Year, 2017) Molitor, vs. Rocco Baldelli. Oddly, not a quick call on that. You’d Think that Molitor would have the advantage, and you’d think a rookie big-league manager might be a step down from last year. Maybe. This could go either way. Molitor had a lot to contend with last season, with lots of injuries on the club. Key Players were MIA. Given all that, 78-84 is probably a pretty good record. And on that basis, I’m going to say this is a small step back for the club. After all: he’s only the manager.
One step back. Because he’s new.

 

So. Put it all together, and what do you get?

Catchers: +1
First base: +1.5
Second base: +1
Shortstop: +1
Third base: +3
Left field: even
Center field: +3
Right field: +1
DH: +2
Relief Pitching: -4
Starting Pitching: -3
Manager: -1

total: +5.5 (if my math is right.)

Now let’s factor in my penchant for overly optimistic forecasts: -6.5

and we get a -1. A bit worse than last season.
And so the forecast for the coming season should be about 77-85.

But that can’t be right.

Obviously, I was way too conservative on improvements that are coming in the infield and at DH. And really, there’s not enough data yet to use that -6.5 with any degree of confidence. So let’s throw that out. Data be damned.

It looks to me like the Twins pitching is going to keep them out of contention. Berrios and Gibson and …pray for rain?
But the offense should be quite a bit better, too.

And so: Official 2019 Final Prediction: 86-76

Addendum: the baseball gods smile down on me today: I find THREE baseball forecasting magazines in a little free library just down the street!

More on this development later.

And, by the way, who is the Greek/Roman/Norse god of baseball, anyway?

the 2018 season: so long, it’s been fun…

I hope you don’t think that I’ve lost interest. Not. At. All.

It’s just that life is pretty full right now.

But I have to take a moment to wish Paul Molitor well. The Twins Brain Trust fired him today, which is the eventual fate of all managers, practically. From Manager of the Year and a brand new three-year contract in October 2017, to former Twins Manager in October 2018.

That’s the way baseball go.

There’s some talk about him staying with the team in some capacity. I’d be surprised if that would happen.

Molitor didn’t have much of a chance for success this year, when you consider the Twins season. Did Ervin Santana ever pitch? Sano and Buxton were largely MIA with assorted injuries. Shortstop Polanco: suspended for half a season. Their pitch-framing catcher: out most of the year. Their free agent off-season pickups were largely disappointing. This is not a recipe for success. This is a recipe for “So long, see you later, thanks for everything.” The Twins finished the season a lackluster 78-84, second place in the Hapless American League Central Division, behind the Spiders of Cleveland.

It was a annoying and dull season. The Front Office threw in the towel and became a retail operation in July, selling players for whatever the market would bear. Goodbye Mr. Dozier, thanks for everything. So long, Mr. Escobar. You were a pleasant surprise and we wish you well. Joe Mauer donned the tools of ignorance for one last at-bat, last game of the season, and everyone expects it to be his last. So long, Joe. Thanks for all the great baseball. Wish we could have taken you to the World Series. But that’s the way baseball go.

I am squarely on the fence regarding the Twins brain trust, Levine and Falvey Inc. Their moves so far have not inspired a great deal of confidence. But – to be fair – I’m willing to give them a few years for their efforts to come to fruition. I’m not about to show them their walking papers after one disappointing and injury-plagued season. Nope. I believe in giving a guy a fair chance to succeed.

And now they’ve got a chance to pick a manager. Here’s a Golden Opportunity to show me something.

first win of 2018: check

Always nice to get that first one done. Always feels good. And somewhat a relief.

(That shadow lurking in the background is the memory of the 2016 season.)

 

Yesterday the Twins knocked the Orioles, 6-2. Sano hit his first of the season, a solo shot in the first. Six nothing till the ninth, and the boys were working on a no-hitter with two-outs in the 8th. Gibson tossed six hit-free innings, striking out 6 (while also walking 5.) Pressly worked the 7th and 8th, and gave up the hit. Gabriel Moya gave up a two run homer in the ninth. Moya was acquired from the Diamond Backs for catcher John Ryan Murphy and rocked double A ball last year, earning a late season call up.

Berrios pitches for the Twins today, and I rate our chances with him on the mound as good.

I wonder what happened to John Ryan Murphy? The Twins traded Aaron Hicks for him, after a season where he batted .277 in 155 at bats with the Yankees. He was a second round pick by the Yankees, made steady progress through their minors, hit .270 and  then .246 at AAA. Then .146 for the Twins, followed by .236 and .222 at triple A. Then to Arizona, and I see he’s up in the bigs to start the season. Curious.

 

2018 Forecast

I’ve taken a pensive scan through the 2018 edition of the Twins, and at last come up with my 2018 prediction.

The positives I see:

  • Starting pitching – reinforcements have arrived, and Odorizzi and Lynn are, I think,  upgrades. And perhaps Berrios will continue to improve: (+2)
  • Third base – where maybe young Sano can somehow stay healthy this season: (+2)
  • Center field – where we hope to see continued Buxton improvement (+1.5)
  • DH – Where Logan Morrison brings some consistency and a substantial upgrade from last year’s rotating cast: (+2)

This puts the Twins 7.5 games up from last season. Let’s call it eight. That puts them at 93-69 at year’s end.

On the downside:

  • I’m not convinced yet that the bullpen has been improved.
  • Is Mauer really back?
  • Who’s out there at short?

So there’s a few questions heading into the season, but I counterbalance these with

  • Brian Dozier seems to be headed to free agency: will he up his game?
  • Our pitch-framing catcher is back
  • Can Eddie Rosario take his game even higher?

All together, I see all these questions as a break-even proposition. And that still leaves as at 93-69 at year’s end.

But wait. There’s the Hubris penalty.

  • I rounded up from 7.5, I might just as well have rounded down. Philosophically, it’s always better to assume the worst. (-1)
  • And then there’s just my general historic and well-documented over-confidence about the Twins. (-1)

And so this puts the Twins at 6 games up from last season, and 91 – 71 at season’s end.

Sound reasonable?

Unfortunately, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections say today that the Twins will finish at 82 -80 this season, scoring 789 runs, and giving up 784. Last year the Twins scored 815, and gave up 788. I’m not sure how they figure this club is going to score less runs than last year, but I’m sure they’ve put in all the numbers, the pitchers, the health factors, wind direction, economic conditions, seismic activity, global warming, bird migration patterns, oil prices, and bat velocities, and so 789 is probably a pretty good guess. Perhaps they know some things I don’t.

Still, I’ll be surprised if this team doesn’t score more, and give up less. There may be other factors that they’ve overlooked and that I took into account. Time will tell who’s right about this.

The hometown StarTribune stable of baseball mavens are just slightly more optimistic than the Prospectus stat-machine:

  • Pat Reusse: 89-73
  • Jim Souhan: 89-73
  • Chip Scoggins: 87-75
  • La Velle E. Neal III: 86-76
  • Sid Hartman: 85-77
  • Phil Miller: 83-79

Again, they probably are blessed with a wealth of arcane “inside” knowledge, drawn from deep within the inner sanctum of the clubhouse, that mere mortals not able to access. But I still think that they are being overly cautious. Probably because they have professional reputations at stake, and, as baseball writers, well there’s always a lot to criticize and they are happy to do so. And that, my friends, leads to a warped perspective, and a life of unhappiness.

I wonder if they write articles at the end of the season, talking about their forecast and the final outcome? Well, we shall see, gentlemen. We shall see.

 

By the way, here it is, baseball season, game 3, and it’s 26 degrees here, and there’s icy snow on the sidewalks, and there’s more snow predicted in the next couple of days.

I Protest!

Play Ball, 2018

The Twins have opened their season in Baltimore, losing the opener, as tradition would have it, by a 3-2 score. They tied it up in the 9th, then dropped it in the 11th on a walk-off homer. Fernando Rodney served it up. Adam Jones took it out. So it goes.

Zach Duke had an unusual debut inning for the twins, throwing two wild pitches while striking out 4 and giving up a couple of earned runs.

Anyway: 0-1. We get a day off to lick our wounds.

I’ve got my prediction made up for the season, and so far the Twins are on track.